Mexico: Playing with fire

by Nidia Diaz
WHILE many predicted it, there was always a question. After so many years of hearing about the "independence" of the three branches of government in "representative democracy," more than a few people believe in it, and speaking of belief, some thought that Mexico’s Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) would shoulder the demand of the For the Good of All opposition coalition to carry out a vote recount, ballot by ballot and polling station by polling station, to verify whether or not fraud was committed during the July 2 presidential elections.

According to the majority, including political analysts, the unanimous ruling issued on August 5 by the TSE, while expected, is still cause for concern, at the same time as a new situation is developing in the country that could make it ungovernable if, as is predicted, popular protests not only continue but could also become sharper, with unpredictable consequences.

In the ruling issued after more than two weeks of distressing waiting and sit-ins taking place in the Mexican capital’s main public plaza, organized by supporters of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who says victory was stolen from him, the TSE judges said that only 9% of polling stations would be verified.

One of the arguments they brandished for dismissing as unviable the coalition’s demands for a total recount was that results were challenged for only 230 voting districts, not all 300, "and therefore it is not possible for the challenge of one or several districts to be extended generally to the rest."

The coalition is insisting that irregularities exist in about 72,000 polling stations of the more than 130,000, and that votes were fraudulently snatched away from López Obrador to the benefit of ruling party candidate Felipe Calderón.

One thing that is certain is that the ruling apparently kills the issue of a challenge to the presidency, even though the For the Good of All coalition and its candidate, López Obrador, are asserting that they will continue to fight to win a verification of the vote count and thus of the election results.

It is not all strange that the ruling National Action Party (PAN), whose candidate, Felipe Calderón, declared himself the winner, and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which fell to being the third-most important political force in the country, have accepted and applauded the TSE’s ruling; after all, up until then, they had rejected any vote recount more than a few times, which is why a number of commentators in Mexico are referring to the conspiracy between the TSE and Mexico’s right-wing forces.

In his categorical rejection of the ruling, López Obrador, former mayor of the capital city, warned on August 6 that he would continue to demand a recount, because, he said, "We do not want to decimate democracy; we want 100% democracy." And he added that it was obvious that Felipe Calderón was being imposed to represent the extreme right-wing interests.

In that sense, he told supporters at a mass rally rejecting and questioning the court ruling that he would never accept offers for dialogue in the terms currently being put forward, much less accept a post in a possible right-wing government, insofar as "I defend an alternative national project," because only a deep-going transformation of Mexican society can guarantee "a homeland for all."

Finally, with the support of the voices and arms of hundreds of thousands of followers for that new national project – which is also possible in Mexico – he announced further actions of peaceful civil resistance.

There is no doubt that the Supreme Electoral Court ruling didn’t go far enough for those who a aquellos que no apuestan ni por tirios ni por troyanos. Others, who are watching the bulls from behind the fence, are wondering why, if Felipe Calderón and the ruling party are so confident of winning, they are refusing to be subjected to a recount that would only legitimize without a shadow of a doubt their victory at the polls. Others, however, believe that the judges, in unanimously issuing such a ruling, have placed themselves over a volcano that is about to erupt and whose lava would destroy more than just polling stations.