Uribe’s Race Against Himself

* Uribe will undoubtedly win reelection on May 28, but there are too many unanswered questions about his leadership

* The election will, in an important way, serve as a referendum on the depth of popular support for Uribe and Colombia’s tolerance for the government’s programs which didn’t show well under the glare of publicity

* Renewed violence on the part of FARC leftist guerrillas and increasing scandals involving Uribe’s old links to the notorious AUC paramilitaries, have cast doubt on his successes, and somewhat tarnished his image

Speculation over whether incumbent Alvaro Uribe will continue as Colombia’s president has long disappeared. After winning an extremely controversial high court decision allowing him to stand for reelection – a move which appeared to many as an act of overweening ambition – Uribe has found few obstacles in his path. Recent polls show he will likely best his closest opponent by a margin of over 30%, potentially sealing his victory in the first round. This is not to suggest he is coasting to victory, however, as his support has steadily flagged since last summer. At one point, Uribe’s approval rating had been as high as 80%, but reports of fraudulent balloting in the last election and controversial free trade talks with the U.S. have tarnished his stature. Pressing questions about the ability of Uribe’s Washington-backed Democratic Security policy to end the country’s brutal civil violence have significantly weakened his mandate. As such, the election is not about if he will retain office, but whether Colombians will register much enthusiasm over four more years of the same. The vote is, in effect, a referendum on Uribe’s mounting failings, with abstention and protest votes nibbling away at his prospective mandate for a second term.
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