April 09, 2006

Tie for 2nd in hours before Peru election

(Advisory: Polls cannot be published in Peru due to local electoral laws)

(Updates with new Apoyo poll.)

By Patricia Zengerle

LIMA, Peru, April 8 (Reuters) - Trucks, motorbikes and mules carried ballots to Peru's mountain and jungle villages on Saturday, as a new poll showed an outspoken nationalist held his lead in the race for the presidency, with his two closest competitors tied for second the day before the vote.

Election authorities said 53,000 police and soldiers were being deployed across Peru to keep the peace during Sunday's election, in which Peruvians will vote for president, all of Congress and Peru's members of the Andean parliament. Some 16.5 million people are expected to cast ballots.

A final poll released on Saturday by the respected Apoyo agency said leftist former army commander Ollanta Humala held a slight lead in Peru's election race, and center-left former President Alan Garcia had pulled into a tie for second place with pro-business conservative Lourdes Flores.

The survey showed Humala with 27 percent of voter support. Garcia and Flores each had 23 percent, Apoyo said.

None of the 20 presidential candidates is likely to receive the 50 percent support needed for victory in the first round.

The first- and second-place finishers move on to the second round, and the prospect of a run-off between the two leftists has been making investors extremely nervous.

Humala led a failed coup in 2000 and has been accused of war crimes, which he denies. He campaigned to increase state involvement in the economy and block a free trade agreement with Washington.

Garcia's 1985-1990 presidency left Peru's economy in shambles, but he is a skilled campaigner who edged out Flores to make the runoff in the last days of campaigning five years ago before losing to current President Alejandro Toledo.

Flores, a lawyer and former congresswoman seen as "the banker's candidate" and who led the polls until February, has struggled to connect with the half of Peruvians who are poor. She would be Peru's first woman president if elected.

CALM ELECTION DAY EXPECTED

"Garcia has a strong campaign strategy, an organized political party, and besides, he is a good speaker," said Bertrand Delgado, an economist at IDEAglobal in New York.

No other presidential candidate has more than single-digit support.

The remnants of the Shining Path insurgency distributed flyers in central Peru this week calling for a boycott of the vote, but authorities said the troops should help ensure the expected calm.

Lima's streets were largely quiet on Saturday. Alcohol sales have been banned from mid-day on Friday until mid-day on Monday. Peru also closes its cinemas on the morning of election day, allowing them to open only after the polls close at 4 p.m. (5 p.m. EDT/2200 GMT).

Voting is mandatory in Peru from everyone aged 18-70, who pay a $40 fine if they do not at least cast a blank ballot. It is voluntary for those over 70.

To help get voters to the polls, the price of domestic transport was temporarily cut by up to two-thirds, El Comercio newspaper reported on Saturday.

In a second round, recent polls have said Flores would beat Humala, but a Humala-Garcia run-off, which would guarantee Peru would continue Latin America's recent shift to the left, would be harder to call.

The new Apoyo poll did not address a possible second round. The nationwide survey of 3,892 potential voters was conducted on April 8 and had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

The European parliament sent a small team to oversee the balloting and the Organization of American States dispatched 126 election observers from 14 countries.

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