Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Support for Morales Reaches 56% in Bolivia

January 02, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public backing for Bolivia’s president increased last month, according to a poll by Ipsos Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado. 56 per cent of respondents approve of the performance of Evo Morales, up four points since November.

Morales—an indigenous leader and former coca-leaf farmer—won the December 2005 presidential election as the candidate for the Movement to Socialism (MAS), with 53.7 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Bolivia’s head of state in January 2006 and vowed to "re-found Bolivia" by enacting a new constitution.

In August 2006, the National Constituent Assembly—an elected ad-hoc body tasked with re-writing the country’s constitution—held its first session. The assembly was supposed to sit for just one year, but the process was marred by discrepancies between opposition parties and pro-government factions about whether the charter should be approved by a simple majority, as well as an attempt by MAS legislators to introduce an article to allow the indefinite re-election of the president. Opposition parties believed this would give Morales a chance to remain in power for as long as he wants.

In early September, violent protests over the content of the Constitution forced the assembly to temporarily suspend its meetings. The members resumed their duties on Sept. 20

On Nov. 24, a draft constitution was approved inside a military base in the vicinity of Sucre, with the support of all pro-government assembly members. Three people died and 20 more were injured during protests staged by the opposition to complain about the change of venue. The proposed draft includes articles that allow for indefinite presidential re-election, the creation of 36 autonomous indigenous communities, and tighter government controls over private media outlets.

On Dec. 29, Morales accepted a proposal to establish a dialogue with representatives of five Bolivian regions—Beni, Cochabamba, Pando, Santa Cruz and Tarija—to discuss the contents of the proposed Constitution. A meeting is expected to take place on Jan. 7. On Dec. 31, Santa Cruz autonomy secretary Carlos Dabdoub said he expects little success, saying, "There will be a resounding ‘No’ from the government on anything we say."

The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum.

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Evo Morales’ performance as president?

	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007	Oct. 2007
Approve	56%	52%	62%
Disapprove	40%	42%	34%

Source: Ipsos Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado
Methodology: Interviews with 1,025 Bolivian adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, conducted from Dec. 11 to Dec. 18, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.