Despite defeat at polls, Venezuela's Chavez holds all the cards

by Martin Markovits,Sebastian Kennedy, Chronicle Foreign Service

The political opposition's elation after Sunday's referendum that denied President Hugo Chavez the sweeping new powers he needed to accelerate his socialist revolution is evaporating quickly.

Despite a narrow victory that rejected 69 proposed constitutional reforms that would have allowed Chavez to stand for re-election indefinitely, create new forms of communal property, handpick local leaders under a redrawn political map and suspend civil liberties under extended states of emergency, those changes could still be implemented through a series of California-style voter propositions, Chavez noted this week.

"Prepare yourselves, because a new offensive is coming," Chavez told viewers of the state-run VTV television station Wednesday. "These reforms are not dead."

Chavez then explained that although current law prohibits him from attempting another referendum to change the Constitution, he could still achieve his reforms via a series of "popular initiatives" by which each reform would be voted on by the Chavez-controlled congress after acquiring signatures of 15 percent of the electorate, or 2.4 million voters. If approved by the congress - known as the National Assembly - it would become law if passed by a majority of voters.

Analysts also say Chavez could push through many of the rejected reforms by presidential decree, which he can exercise for another six months as stipulated by a previous decree issued in January.

The political opposition had hoped to use the momentum of its marginal victory to galvanize popular support against Chavez. With 90 percent of the ballots counted, official figures stand at 50.7 percent against the reforms and 49.3 percent for the yes vote.

But Greg Wilpert, director of a left-leaning news Web site, Venezuelanalysis.com, predicts that not much will change.

"The opposition is celebrating right now, but the fact is they are still as powerless as ever," he said. "They have no seats in the National Assembly, and they only have one governor. They will probably gain some seats in the gubernatorial elections in 2007, but that won't make much difference, because real power lies with the federal government. The next election for the National Assembly is in 2010, and that is still a long time away."

Jorge Perez, a member of a pro-Chavez political radio cooperative called First Free Black Radio, also points out that the opposition lacks credible leadership and policies to attract the masses.

"The opposition has yet to find a leader that can match Chavez's magnetic personality and charisma," Perez said. "They are united and energized only when they stand against him. They need to start developing their own policies and solutions to Venezuela's problems."

Any chance of increased cooperation between government and its political opposition appeared to disappear Wednesday when a defiant Chavez dismissed the "no" vote victory with several expletives.

"You should administer your victory properly, but already you are covering it in s-. It's a s- victory, and ours - call it, defeat - is one of courage, of valor, of dignity," he said at a news conference at the presidential palace. "We haven't moved a millimeter, and we won't. ... They have nothing to celebrate, and we have lost nothing."

Some analysts have also described the proposed use of popular initiatives to achieve change after losing the referendum a violation of the Constitution that would eventually involve a Supreme Court decision. Even though the court is stacked with Chavez loyalists, it has occasionally shown a streak of independence. Popular initiatives "would be fraudulent," said constitutional lawyer Rafael Chavero.

Elenis Rodriguez, national secretary for the opposition party Justice First, says Chavez's insistence on pushing through his reforms reveals his true desire: to stay in power indefinitely.

"He doesn't really need a new Constitution to implement most of his socialist principles - he can do so using decree powers and the legislature," she said. "But the only way he can stand for re-election is to change the Constitution, and the only way to do that is to encourage his supporters to implement proposals of their own (popular) initiative. It's a very underhanded strategy."

On Thursday, Chavez's ex-wife said she will propose her own popular initiative to shorten presidential terms from six to four years and allow presidents one chance for re-election. Marisabel Rodriguez, who divorced Chavez in 2004, said her ex-husband, who assumed power in 1999, has been in office long enough.