Geopolitical Diary: Flyovers, Troops and the Oaxacan Protests
Mexican military planes and helicopters flew over protesters in the colonial city of Oaxaca for the second consecutive day Oct. 1. The months-old protest in Oaxaca has continued to escalate. What arose as an annual labor dispute by public school teachers demanding higher wages has been forcefully suppressed by Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz Ortiz and hijacked by radical fringe groups to form the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO).
Meanwhile, a large contingent of Oaxacan protesters that began marching Sept. 22 is expected to complete the 300-mile trek and arrive in Mexico City on Oct. 3. Mexican President-elect Felipe Calderon has called for President Vicente Fox to hand over a peaceful, conflict-free government Nov. 30. Still, Fox has been pressed from all sides to do something about the protests. However, he has shown little inclination to do anything.
Mexico has had a strong aversion to the federal use of force since an Oct. 2, 1968, student protest was put down violently in Mexico City with as many as 300 students killed. Even during recent protests in Mexico City triggered by the narrow defeat of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in the presidential election, crowds were getting out of hand directly in front of an important government building before any forceful action was taken. Things would have to go very badly for a skittish federal government to use force against the Oaxacan protesters, especially since Oct. 2 marks the 38th anniversary of the government violence against student protesters a few days before the beginning of the 1968 Mexico City Olympics.
However, tanks and troop transport trucks were seen arriving Oct. 1 in Huatulco, 150 miles from Oaxaca. Taken along with the military flyovers, this is certainly a significant development. Nevertheless, military intervention is far from a foregone conclusion. While the government's claim that the overflights are routine supply missions is questionable, they may be little more than an attempt to intimidate the protesters.
While fringe groups may have taken control of the protests, the people of Oaxaca do not have long-standing, intractable disputes with the government that would lead them to insurrection. The APPO is not Hezbollah. When "unidentified gunmen" -- likely to have been the governor's henchmen -- took potshots at protesters, there was no return fire. And while barricades have been built and buses set aflame, the protesters are not armed in any meaningful way.
Nevertheless, it is force that got the problem started in the first place. An annual strike took a new turn when the teachers made far-reaching demands about the rezoning of Oaxaca, but it did not become what it is until the governor used force to suppress it. The protests have since centered around a call for Ruiz Ortiz's resignation. The governor has had ample opportunity to muster what local forces he has available, but he wants federal involvement. However, the only military activity we have seen thus far is hardly preparation for a push into Oaxaca -- military overflights and the movement of a small contingent of troops hardly constitutes preparation for military move against the Oaxacan protesters.
Meanwhile, a large contingent of Oaxacan protesters that began marching Sept. 22 is expected to complete the 300-mile trek and arrive in Mexico City on Oct. 3. Mexican President-elect Felipe Calderon has called for President Vicente Fox to hand over a peaceful, conflict-free government Nov. 30. Still, Fox has been pressed from all sides to do something about the protests. However, he has shown little inclination to do anything.
Mexico has had a strong aversion to the federal use of force since an Oct. 2, 1968, student protest was put down violently in Mexico City with as many as 300 students killed. Even during recent protests in Mexico City triggered by the narrow defeat of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in the presidential election, crowds were getting out of hand directly in front of an important government building before any forceful action was taken. Things would have to go very badly for a skittish federal government to use force against the Oaxacan protesters, especially since Oct. 2 marks the 38th anniversary of the government violence against student protesters a few days before the beginning of the 1968 Mexico City Olympics.
However, tanks and troop transport trucks were seen arriving Oct. 1 in Huatulco, 150 miles from Oaxaca. Taken along with the military flyovers, this is certainly a significant development. Nevertheless, military intervention is far from a foregone conclusion. While the government's claim that the overflights are routine supply missions is questionable, they may be little more than an attempt to intimidate the protesters.
While fringe groups may have taken control of the protests, the people of Oaxaca do not have long-standing, intractable disputes with the government that would lead them to insurrection. The APPO is not Hezbollah. When "unidentified gunmen" -- likely to have been the governor's henchmen -- took potshots at protesters, there was no return fire. And while barricades have been built and buses set aflame, the protesters are not armed in any meaningful way.
Nevertheless, it is force that got the problem started in the first place. An annual strike took a new turn when the teachers made far-reaching demands about the rezoning of Oaxaca, but it did not become what it is until the governor used force to suppress it. The protests have since centered around a call for Ruiz Ortiz's resignation. The governor has had ample opportunity to muster what local forces he has available, but he wants federal involvement. However, the only military activity we have seen thus far is hardly preparation for a push into Oaxaca -- military overflights and the movement of a small contingent of troops hardly constitutes preparation for military move against the Oaxacan protesters.
posted by Alice at
Monday, October 02, 2006
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home