Latin America rebellion against US-backed globalization gathering steam

by John Rapley
Outside observers have been fascinated by the populist bandwagon rolling through Latin America. With leftist governments coming to power in one election after another, and with these governments speaking out against what they see as undue US influence, it seems that the rebellion against globalization is gathering steam.

Some have even discerned the hand of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, stage-managing events as he builds an anti-American alliance across the Americas.

There is little question that neoliberal globalization has been encountering increasing resistance in Latin America, as elsewhere, over the last decade. Some of this account for the rise of left-wing governments. But careful observers have also been detecting that the populist tide is splitting into two currents.

The first, associated with Hugo Chavez, sees authoritarian populists reverting to Latin American traditions of strong states, anti-Americanism, and a radical but patronage-based politics. Countries which are said to have been swept in this tide include Venezuela, Argentina and Bolivia. The second current comprises left-wing governments, like those of Brazil and Chile, which are progressive and relatively liberal. In short, not all left-wing governments back Mr. Chavez' vision.

Now, furthermore, its popularity is also finding its limits. Firstly, of course, Fidel Castro's health issues put a question-mark over one of Chavez' allies. Secondly, recent presidential elections in Peru and Mexico have revealed some of the limits of authoritarian populism.

In Peru, Chavez ally Ollanta Humala was defeated in June elections. Some Peruvian analysts believe his alliance with Chavez whose importance was probably exaggerated by the latter man anyhow -- did him no good. Mr. Humala did not lose to a conservative, mind you. The eventual victor was Alan Garcia, himself a populist and gifted orator who last ran Peru in the 1980s and left it awash in corruption and inflation.

Lesson learnt

Mr. Garcia says he has learned form his past mistakes. His former enemies in the country's privileged classes united behind him to withstand Humala, and he made an explicit point of repudiating Chavez and his vision for the region.

Mexico's case is somewhat different. There, a leftist candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, apparently lost by a slender margin to the conservative Felipe Calderon. Convinced that Calderon's supporters stole the election, Lopez Obrador has taken his struggle to the streets of Mexico City, of which he was once the mayor. Huge crowds have attended rallies, blocked roads and engaged in a campaign of civil disobedience to try and provoke a recount.

So far, the electoral authorities are not yielding to his demands. But the drama of the left-right split in this presidential election obscures the disappointing results for anyone looking for another brick in an anti-US wall. Firstly, the conservatives appeared headed to certain victory just a few months ago. Mr. Calderon's surge, and his party's strong showing in Congressional elections, indicate that even if Lopez Obrador were able to snatch a victory, his government would probably have to govern cautiously.

* Besides, despite Lopez Obrador's verbal warmth to Chavez, his radicalism might be overstated. He essentially favors the continuation of neoliberal policies, and does not oppose the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Not that long ago, Latin America's pendulum appeared to be swinging decisively against the US and neoliberal globalization. But recent events have begun to complicate this picture.

A new political dispensation appears to be taking hold across the continent, but it also appears to be moderating somewhat.

Despite disenchantment with many elements of neoliberalism, voters in many countries seem to like their liberty and democracy more than the siren calls of a bold new era.

For now, the populist bandwagon seems to have slowed.