Experts: Iran years away from bomb
Iran may have an atomic bomb within two years, the authoritative Jane's Defense Weekly warned. That was in 1984, two decades ago.
Four years later, Iraq said Iran was at the nuclear threshold. In 1992, the CIA foresaw atomic arms in Iranian hands by 2000. Then U.S. officials pushed that back to 2003. And in 1997, Israel confidently predicted a new date -- 2005.
Iran's nuclear ambitions are again being predicted. But experts say the coming of any Iranian nuclear arms looks to be years away and that the past predictions underplayed the technological challenges.
Iran, which said it has begun enriching small amounts of uranium, denies its program is intended to produce anything beyond weaker fuel for civilian nuclear power plants.
The United Nations Security Council is expected to take up the issue next month, when skeptics may push for sanctions against Iran. But few specialists view a potential Iranian bomb as an imminent threat. In fact, the latest estimate from the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies sees no Iranian bomb before the next decade. Israeli defense experts agree, speaking of 2012.
"It's a very complicated process requiring precision from design and engineering to manufacture and installation, and there's a lot of room for problems," said Washington analyst Corey Hinderstein, who for a decade has tracked Iranian nuclear developments for the Institute for Science and International Security.
Enrichment occurs in centrifuges, into which uranium gas is fed. Each, with a few milligrams of gas, spins at up to 70,000 revolutions per minute, separating the heavier uranium-238 from the rarer U-235, the isotope whose nucleus can break apart to produce energy.
The mixture's content is gradually boosted to more than 3% U-235, the level needed for power generators. If extended, the process can produce 90% enriched uranium for bombs.
But centrifuges vibrate, shatter and fail regularly, because of imprecise machining, slight imbalances magnified at high speeds and imperfect bearings.
"A vast percentage of centrifuges have to be rejected in testing, up to 60% rejection," said Frank Barnaby, a former British weapons scientist now at the Oxford Research Group.
Iran plans to install 50,000 centrifuges in underground halls at Natanz, Iran. But fewer than half of the 1,140 machines Iran had assembled by 2004 were good enough, the UN nuclear agency has reported.
Hinderstein's institute suggests Iran could speed things up to produce enough bomb fuel for one weapon. Even then, the process would take the project into 2009.
And, asked Barnaby, "Who do you deter with just one weapon?"
Four years later, Iraq said Iran was at the nuclear threshold. In 1992, the CIA foresaw atomic arms in Iranian hands by 2000. Then U.S. officials pushed that back to 2003. And in 1997, Israel confidently predicted a new date -- 2005.
Iran's nuclear ambitions are again being predicted. But experts say the coming of any Iranian nuclear arms looks to be years away and that the past predictions underplayed the technological challenges.
Iran, which said it has begun enriching small amounts of uranium, denies its program is intended to produce anything beyond weaker fuel for civilian nuclear power plants.
The United Nations Security Council is expected to take up the issue next month, when skeptics may push for sanctions against Iran. But few specialists view a potential Iranian bomb as an imminent threat. In fact, the latest estimate from the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies sees no Iranian bomb before the next decade. Israeli defense experts agree, speaking of 2012.
"It's a very complicated process requiring precision from design and engineering to manufacture and installation, and there's a lot of room for problems," said Washington analyst Corey Hinderstein, who for a decade has tracked Iranian nuclear developments for the Institute for Science and International Security.
Enrichment occurs in centrifuges, into which uranium gas is fed. Each, with a few milligrams of gas, spins at up to 70,000 revolutions per minute, separating the heavier uranium-238 from the rarer U-235, the isotope whose nucleus can break apart to produce energy.
The mixture's content is gradually boosted to more than 3% U-235, the level needed for power generators. If extended, the process can produce 90% enriched uranium for bombs.
But centrifuges vibrate, shatter and fail regularly, because of imprecise machining, slight imbalances magnified at high speeds and imperfect bearings.
"A vast percentage of centrifuges have to be rejected in testing, up to 60% rejection," said Frank Barnaby, a former British weapons scientist now at the Oxford Research Group.
Iran plans to install 50,000 centrifuges in underground halls at Natanz, Iran. But fewer than half of the 1,140 machines Iran had assembled by 2004 were good enough, the UN nuclear agency has reported.
Hinderstein's institute suggests Iran could speed things up to produce enough bomb fuel for one weapon. Even then, the process would take the project into 2009.
And, asked Barnaby, "Who do you deter with just one weapon?"
posted by Alice at
Friday, February 17, 2006
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